Baseball, philosophy, video games, snarky anti-Bush rants, and all other various and sundry topics. Not necessarily in that order.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Dispatches from the frontline of the "console war"

There's almost nothing gamer fanboys love more than railing against the video game system they did not choose to buy and jingoistically defending their choice of purchase. Generally, these people are idiots.

I, on the other hand, am not an idiot, nor am I a fanboy. I happen to own an Xbox360 and a PS3. I purchased the 360 because I had several original Xbox games I wanted to finish, and I recently purchased a PS3 because I wanted a Blu-Ray player for my super-spectacular HDTV. I have not purchased a Wii because I already own a Gamecube and don't really see a lot of games begging for me to play them just now (and, given the console's apparent popularity, I wouldn't be able to find one if I tried.) I have, however, played it at friends' homes and my sister owns one, so I am not inexperienced in all things Wii.

So here's my take on the current "console war."

First off, I don't see why a "war" is necessary. The video game market is expanding, as are the incomes of the generational cohort (mine) that grew up with video games as a primary means of entertainment. Many of us own 2 or more of the choices out there. And even if we didn't all own multiple systems, there are enough consumers around the world to purchase, say, 30-50 million of each brand. While that is far short of the PS2's 115-million worldwide sales mark, it seems like more than enough to build a profitable hardware and software sales business (As of right now, the 360 has sold 10 million since 11/22/05, the Wii 9 million since 11/19/06, and the PS3 about 4 million since 11/11/06).

My predictions for console sales when all is said and done are: Xbox360-40 million; Wii-50 million; PS3-60 million. Here are my reasons:

-As far as the Xbox goes, I'd imagine a lifespan of 4-5 years from today for the console. I don't think sales will spike at any given time, outside of periodic price drops. Microsoft's recent woes with warranty issues will slow sales over the next year until they finally come clean with a good explanation for their high failure rates. They do, however, have strong software support and a well developed online content delivery system. Sales should steady and stay even throughout the projected life of the system.

-The Wii will probably last a bit longer on the market, maybe 5-6 years. I think Nintendo is banking on their formidable software library from 1980-present and their "Virtual Console" store. They don't seem as interested in driving hardware improvement, given their lack of HDTV support and next-gen DVD capability. On the other hand, if Nintendo captures the "casual" market as they did with their GBA and DS businesses, they could move 75-100 million Wiis. I doubt it though - I just don't see a rash of compelling software which can ONLY be done on the Wii sustaining itself for 5 years. I see sales topping out after the initial buzz/fad stage wears off this Christmas, and going on a slow, steady burn from there on forward.

- Sony is in it for the long haul with the PS3, I think, and this is why, though sales will not eclipse the yearly marks of the other consoles for a year or two, they will likely tally the most when all is said and done. They have stated a 10-year lifespan for the console - quite a bit, compared to past systems (although the NES and PS2 come close.) Sony has the resources and the brand name power to do it - especially if they get hardware down to $300, push Blu-Ray to a competitive level (i.e. Blu-Ray discs which cost the same as Standard DVD), and have a big glut of quality gaming content. I think the chances of at least 2 of these 3 are quite good, and so, despite an initial slow sales build, Sony will start pumping consoles out into the market and get software into the hands of their users.

All told, I do not think there will be a PS2 of this generation (i.e. a console which doubles the competitions' sales combined). And frankly, I think this can be a good thing for the consumer. When you have three systems with competitive install bases, manufacturers will try their darnedest to create and add value to their product in order to lure consumers. Price drops, pack ins, upgrades, etc. A consumer who buys one console will not have to worry that their system will dwindle and die with a whimper (Such as the wonderful Dreamcast, and even Gamecube arguably). Third party developers may put out fewer games total, but they will be distributed more evenly, and, given the smaller numbers and the online demo capability f all three systems, they will probably be of higher quality in general.

So let's declare a cease fire in the console war. The New World Order of the seventh console generation looks pretty nice to these eyes.

Sunday, July 01, 2007

What I've Learned About Buying an HDTV

I just finished my degree recently. To celebrate, my parents bought me (well, went halfway on, anyway) a new HD television to replace the one I lost in the fire. It is the Sony KDS-50A2000, their entry level "SXRD" set (which makes it their least expensive top of the line set). Now, I had known what sort of television I wanted for many moons before this, but a lot of people are just lost in the woods when it comes to stuff like this. Since everyone comes to me with questions about it, why not "blog" about it, as the kids are wont to do nowadays?

Why HD?

OK. First things first. Why HD? I get this question a lot from people who have never seen an HDTV in action. Usually old codgers who've had their GE color set from 1972 in the living room ever since, slowly degrading, inspiring visits to the optometrist, convincing them that all those Hollywood stars wear green makeup for some reason.

Let's try and put it simply. Have you ever seen a copy from a mimeograph? You know, the sort of purple ink "ditto" sheets you might have gotten if you attended school in the 80's. The letters are kind of blurry, the sheets might be warped from the wet copy process, and they have a distinct odor. Now, have you ever seen a sheet from a good laser printer? Crisp, bright paper, not dulled by wet copying, the letters so clean and distinct that they practically read themselves. That's kind of like the difference between Standard Definition (SD) and High Definition (HD) television. Or maybe, for you visually impaired types out there, think about the difference between having your glasses off and having them on. Between a polaroid and a digital camera. Between the top of the upper deck and seats behind the plate.

Go to a bar and check out the clarity on sports. Go to a friend's house and watch a movie. Really give it a look. It's clearly superior, with every type of programming. Once you've whetted your appetite, get ready to do a little bit of research and planning.

Stage 1: Learn Before You Buy

Once you're set on getting an HDTV, it's time to answer a few questions:

What will I watch most?

This is important insofar as the "level" of set that you're going to want to shoot for. Not all HDTV's are created equal - but that's OK, because most people have different expectations. My Grandmother, for instance, was impressed by my parents' Samsung DLP rear projection set over this last holiday because it was nice and big, and provided a very clear picture for things like Jeopardy, daily soap operas, and the news. But this is all she'd likely watch - she doesn't own more than one or two DVDs, and doesn't follow sports to any large degree. Now for myself, on the other hand, I have a ton of DVDs, follow Baseball religiously, watch a bit of network TV, and have a couple of video game systems. Our needs will be correspondingly different.

How much of a stickler am I for quality?

This question relates to the first. My grandmother doesn't have the greatest eyesight. I, on the other hand, have 20/20 vision. Since I am also a connoisseur of movies, picture quality is of particular interest to me. My grandma just wants it to be big, bright and clear. So the question for the connoisseur is: what makes a great picture?

In my online reading and personal experience with various sets, I think "home theater" picture quality boils down to these essentials, in descending order of importance:
1. Contrast/Black level
2. Color fidelity
3. Resolution
4. Image processing

A deep black is essential to giving the illusion of reality to an image. When we see shadows in the real world, they're not washed out gray fields in our view. We see blackness, nothing. Things which are in the shadow, to the extent that they're visible, subtly reflect just a tad more light than the baseline darkness of the shadow. This is what we should look for in our display - both the darkest rock-bottom black we can find, as well as the ability to distinguish things just above black in an easy, realistic manner.

Color is another obvious element to a great image. We've all seen an old tube TV with green faces or purple sky. Doesn't look real, does it? The ability of a display to render vibrant, convincing colors which closely approximate reality is key. Flesh tones are especially important - if everyone looks like they've just driven 300 miles in a convertible, something is wrong.

Resolution is important inasmuch as you can actually discern it. If you're sitting less than a foot away from a 27" tube set, you know what I mean - you can see every pixel in the image, it looks like a big jumble of lighted blocks. If you're sitting 15 feet away, the image will look clear, but it will be tiny. Finding a resolution suited to your viewing environment is important. When you do it right, and hit the sweet spot of resolution for viewing distance, you're in for a treat. You've seen youtube videos, right? Pretty crappy resolution, especially when you're likely 2 feet from your monitor. But boy oh boy, when you see a high resolution image from the right distance, it's like being there (given the previous two elements of a great image being in place).

Image processing is a concept that escapes most people, until you show it to them in direct comparison/contrast examples. But it has a profound effect. "Sharpness" is the type of processing most are familiar with. The Sharpness control, used improperly, can ruin a picture by putting little white halos around every object on screen. Different companies have a panoply of processing schemes, such as Sony's "Digital Reality Creation (DRC)", Samsung's "DNiE (dynamic image enhancement)", among others. Many of these schemes can wildly influence picture quality - making things either a mushy mess or a jittery, jagged, mess of over-enhanced lines.

Where will I put the TV?

A lot of people salivate over "flat panel" televisions mounted on the wall. Plasma and LCD sets look sexy, to be sure, but it's worth considering your other options for a few reasons. Rear projection models such as DLP and LCOS can usually be had for half the price at larger sizes. While they are generally 10 to 15 inches deep, as opposed to the 4 or 5 inches of a flat panel, they usually offer comparable or better performance at a lower price. Additionally, since we all have cable boxes, DVD players, and video game systems to place within cords' reach of the set, usually an entertainment center cabinet is still the best option for placement of the set. So if you have a cabinet that's 24 inches deep in your living room anyway, what's the real benefit of the flat panel set?

Don't get me wrong, Plasma and LCD sets can look great, and certainly have the "ooh" and "aah" factor. But I think the reap projection sets on the market offer great value and performance, and don't take up any more room, given the need of placing AV equipment in cabinets (if you're pondering expensive "in-wall" installation, you're probably not reading this!).

Another thing to consider is the lighting of your "television room." Do you want your set in a bright living room with limited control of sunlight? Then you need to consider reflections which can obscure your line of sight. Most plasma sets, for instance, are equipped with a shiny, reflective screen coating, which reflects any ambient sunlight or room lighting back at you. It doesn't pay to watch only 60% of a $2500 set. Consider placement of such a TV in a darker room or one with heavy curtains, or pointing away from the incoming light.

Sound is something many ignore - but the best movie and television programming are usually encoded with 5.1 to 7.1 channel surround sound. If you want the full experience, you may want to consider a room where you can place or mount several speakers at relatively even distances from your TV. A nice rectangular room is usually good for this. There are many inexpensive home theater "in a box" systems that will provide you with all the speakers you need.

How much am I willing to spend?

This is the question that can dictate what kind of set you get. If you want to spend $1000 or less, you're either relegated to a lower-end LCD panel at a smaller size, or the best bargain on a DLP set you can find if you want something bigger. If you're budgeting up to $2000, you can find a lot of great sets. 42" LCD and Plasma sets can be found in this range, though generally in 720p flavors. 1080p Rear-pro sets can be found in this bracket at sizes up to 60". If you want 50" or more from a flat panel, $2500 and up is what you'll be spending.

Of course prices keep trending downward over time, so things constantly change. This can also lead to the "oooh, price drop!" buyer's remorse every summer. Well, you just need to accept that prices drop. Shop for the best discount you can get, be sure to pricematch big box retailers with "certified" online retailers such as vanns.com and amazon. Retailers will usually match the lowest legitimate price you can find on a set, and sometimes will kick in a little extra discount to undersell the competitor.

A note on cables: DO NOT BUY MONSTER CABLE! Monster brand products are severely overpriced and do not offer any appreciable performance benefit over less expensive "house brands." This is especially true in the area of digital cables - digital means that a signal is all encoded as 1's and 0's. As long as it gets to the set from the source, it will be a perfect image transfer, no matter what. All the "Gas injection" and "gold shielding" in the world doesn't alter whether a cable actually gets the signal there or not.

How will I get my content delivered to me?

Once you've seen enough HD to convince yourself that you want it, that it's worth it, the question is, what will you feed your new set? You need to explore the options available to you in your area.

-Most of us have access to a cable provider who has added some HD programming of late. Here, it's Comcast. They offer a "digital" cable service, and charge an extra $5 to $10 for "adding" HD channels. Personally, I think the extra fee is a ripoff, but, you can get a DVR cable box in the deal, which records your scheduled programming a la "Tivo" so you can watch it whenever you please. Most cable providers offera rudimentary HD lineup, with ESPN, your local sports cable station, Discovery, TNT, an HD startup channel such as INHD, and local HD broadcast stations.

-Satellite services are currently in hot competition with each other to outdo the other's HD offerings. DirecTV and Dish Network are scrambling to add HD channels to their lineups. Both companies currently offer 20 or so channels, and look to add up to 100 apiece by next year. If your local cable service kind of stinks or is too pricey, or you just have a bad relationship with them, it can really pay to get a dish service. They offer local HD stations (though there can be some exceptions,) everything cable offers, and usually newer cable stations that have gone digital such as National Geographic, TLC, Food, SciFi, and the like.

-If you're on a budget, but still want a fair amount of HD programming to complement your DVD or gaming with your new toy, an antenna is worthy of consideration. Back in olden times, people put rabbit ears or aerial antennas to tune in local broadcasts. Well, those days are back, because Federal mandates have required local stations to broadcast in HD for some time now. I personally own this model, an indoor/outdoor variety that pulls in most channels quite well. Traditional antennas that you still see on rooftops work as well. These will pull in whatever channels are over the air in your area. If you're near a big city, this will usually include CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, and a few other local HD stations such as WGN, CW, and the like. You can expect 10-20 channels with big networks and their various digital offshoots. Quality is usually a bit better than Cable or Dish, as well, since those services need to compress their signals to fit within their channel lineups and the bandwidth of coaxial cable. But you won't get your cable HD stations, such as ESPN, Discovery, etc.

Stage 2: Buying and Setting up

You need to set a target for what brand and model you want before you go to any stores. You do NOT want an employee who works on commission to recommend a set to you. I recommend you take your budget and look at reviews for sets within that price range. Cnet.com has useful reviews and summaries for sets which can be sorted by price. Other useful review sites are Sound and Vision and Home Theater Magazine.

720p v. 1080p

There are a lot of buzzwords floating around trying to sell various types of televisions. True HD, Full HD, blah blah blah. What you need to know is that there are two choices of resolution you can choose for your set. 1080p describes a picture composed of 1920 x 1080 pixels. 720p is a picture composed of 1280 x 720 pixels. One has a higher resolution. It's just that simple. (By way of comparison, Standard Definition TV has 640x480 pixels.) High Definition broadcasts are either in 720p or 1080i. Either type of set will display either signal. In theory, a 1080p set will show you more detail from a 1080i signal, but in practice the difference is slight, owing to the fact that most cable/dish companies don't give you a tremendously great signal to begin with. A 1080p set will certainly give you a better Blu-Ray or HD-DVD picture, since they are natively 1080p at a high quality level of compression. (More on Blu-Ray/HD-DVD later.)




----

Well, that's a start. I'll update this as I think of new things to offer you, gentle readers. Until then, enjoy your HD experience! It can be a fun project for a tech-inclined person, and a good learning experience for the non-tech-savvy.